GTA 6 Delay to May 2026 Cuts $2.7B from 2025 Forecasts, but Analysts See Long-Term Outlook Strong

GTA 6 (Credit: Rockstar Games)

Rockstar Games’ decision to push Grand Theft Auto VI from its original Fall 2025 release to May 26, 2026, is sending noticeable ripples through the gaming industry’s financial forecasts. The shift is more than just a new date on the calendar; it’s a reminder of how much weight one franchise can carry for the global market.

According to Ampere Analysis, the delay is expected to wipe about $2.7 billion from the 2025 gaming outlook, directly affecting both software and hardware sales. In fact, console sales projections took a hit too, with forecasts dropping by around 700,000 units. The reasoning is clear: GTA 6 was seen as a major holiday-season driver for both PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S, and its absence leaves a gap no other title can truly fill this year.

The impact is visible on a global scale as well. Newzoo’s latest report projects the worldwide gaming market will grow 3.4% in 2025, reaching $188.9 billion, compared to 3.2% in 2024. While that sounds like an improvement, the growth is slower than previously forecast due to the missing GTA 6 boost. Newzoo expects a 3.3% CAGR through 2027, down from its earlier 3.7% projection, but notes that the eventual PC launch of GTA VI will help sustain market momentum into the late 2020s.

In the U.S., PwC’s projections show gaming and esports revenue climbing from $62.8 billion in 2024 to $87.4 billion by 2029, at a steady 6.8% annual growth rate. PwC acknowledges that the GTA 6 delay will take away billions from 2025’s figures, but also predicts it will add roughly $3 billion to 2026 revenue instead.

Interestingly, some publishers see opportunity in Rockstar’s absence. EA, for instance, anticipates stronger results in fiscal 2026, aiming for $7.6–$8 billion in bookings thanks to hype around its upcoming Battlefield installment and its steady sports lineup. With the year’s biggest juggernaut out of the way, competitors may enjoy more breathing room in the market.

How GTA 6 will Perform as per Forecasts

When GTA 6 does launch, the expectations are sky-high. DFC Intelligence forecasts over $3.2 billion in revenue within the first year, including more than $1 billion from pre-orders alone. Sales could hit 40 million copies in that period, eventually climbing toward 100 million units by 2030 — a pace that could double GTA V’s historic trajectory.

Analyst Michael Pachter from Wedbush Securities predicts a $100 price tag, production costs north of $1.5 billion, and lifetime revenue exceeding $10 billion, with GTA Online adding another $500 million annually.

Meanwhile, Konvoy Ventures has gone even bolder, estimating $7.6 billion in revenue in the first 60 days — though Niko Partners’ Daniel Ahmad warns this is an “aggressive” figure, as it would require almost two-thirds of current PS5 and Xbox Series owners to buy the game right away.

Investor confidence remains high. BMO Capital Markets forecasts 45 million unit sales at launch, a potential $100 price point, and a $265 share price target for Take-Two Interactive.

While 2025 will feel the absence of GTA 6, the industry appears to be simply holding its breath — ready for what could be the biggest game launch in history when 2026 finally rolls around.